Try to relax today. You're going to need the rest.
This week is going to be big for the economy. For two reasons.
The first reason is that the first week of the month is always big in terms of the calendar for economic data. On April 1 we'll get PMI manufacturing numbers from all over the world, giving us the latest on what's happening in China, Europe, and the US, not to mention several other key emerging markets like Russia, Turkey, and Brazil.
Throughout the week there's other top-shelf data that will tell us about the state of the labor market, including car sales (a good proxy for work), initial jobless claims, and the ADP jobs report. And then Friday is the big kahuna: The Jobs Report, when we get the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data for March.
Current Jobs Report consensus is for Non-Farm Payrolls to add about 200K for the month, which would be an acceleration from recent months.
And there's where we get into the second big reason you should pay attention this week: We're about to start finding out how much the winter weather really contributed to the slowdown of data in recent months.
If the data keeps coming in poor it will raise troubling questions about what the heck is going on economically. Or we might see a spring pickup and a return of the growth story.
According to Morgan Stanley's proprietary AlphaWise Real Indicator of Activity (ARIA), the Spring rebound is indeed in effect. Hopefully that shows up in this week's big data.
