From Dave Lutz of JonesTrading, here's a very quick guide to what traders are talking about today.
Good morning! Some divergence US and German Futures this AM, with S&P 60bp above the DAX as Ukraine claims that Moscow has massed 45,000 troops on the Ukraine border causing the relief rally to fade in Europe. Interesting Spanish and Italian markets are bouncing sharply – seems a rotation from Spanish paper. Volumes remain light as heavy “out of office” messages are replied to e-mails – Most EU markets are trading 30% light to normal averages. Russia’s Micex continues to bounce, and not seeing any major “safe haven” trades occurring early. Aussie led the Asian markets higher on decent economic data, led by a 1.5%+ pop in the miners. Japan gained small as GPIF headlines circulate into (what’s expected to be) a terrible GDP number tonight. Shanghai saw some profit-taking as they’s leapt 8% in the last 3 weeks, while Kospi added small into their Interest Rate Decision Thursday.
The US 10YY is flat, and most PIIGS debt is tighter to Bunds, helping the EU banks well outperform the German selloff. The Euro is nearing a 9M low as ZEW collapses (expected), keeping German yields near all-time lows. The “Carry Trade” of the USDJPY cross is showing some risk-taking, but it failed to stay upside 200dma into BOJ minutes tonight. The DXY is testing recent peaks, causing a headwind for commodities. We do have a bid under industrial metals as dovish China hopes increase, while Gold is only adding small despite Ukraine concerns. The Oil complex is breaking down rapidly as slowdown concerns increase for EU, and the IEA cuts Oil consumption forecasts this AM. Brent has taken out recent lows, and nearing the 1Y floor. WTI is under pressure as well, as the Energy players rotate towards the Natty complex with increases LNG consumption headlines hitting in Asia. Scheduled Catalysts today include Small Business Optimism at7:30, JOLTS jobs data at 10, a small POMO at 11, WASDE data for AG at 12, a 3Y auction at 1, and Treasury’s Monthly budget statement at 2.